Welcome to Week 4, where we will finally start putting the theories you have been studying to work on some empirical (real world) evidence.  This week, we will explore armed conflict- what is it, where does it come from, and can it ever be reduced? 

Before we can really think about armed conflict or war, we have to define it.  How would you define war?  What actors are involved?  How much violence needs to occur before you would consider an event/conflict a war?  IR scholars debate this topic extensively- we’ll look at two datasets that come to very different conclusions on measurement- the Correlates of War Project, which uses a threshold of 1,000 battle-related deaths per year, and the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, which uses a much lower limit- 25 battle deaths per year.  Whenever looking at quantitative data (or any data, really), make sure you understand the coding, definitions, and assumptions, so you can evaluate the evidence presented to you.  

However you define war, there are certain conclusions that all counts tend to agree on.  First, the nature of war has fundamentally changed.  Overall, wars have decreased, both in numbers and numbers of casualties.  Since the 1990s, the vast majority of warfare has been INTRAstate, not INTERstate.  Different types of states also tend to go to war at different rates.  While it was once theorized that democracies went to war less, Democratic Peace Theory has been refined- stable, mature democracies do not go to war with each other, but do go to war with non-democracies, and contries transitioning to or from democracy are the most likely of any type of state to go to war.  

Try to be ready to participate in this week’s class- armed conflict is always a lively discussion!  Make sure you work through this week’s readings (Unit 2) a bit before class so you can get the most out of our time together.  You can use the slides to help guide you (just remember, they’re a supplement to, and not a substitute for your reading!).   Remember to write a blog post this week, and don’t forget to cite/link to your reading or outside sources as appropriate.  If you’re behind (or have yet to start), you can catch up (and won’t lose any points for doing so)- start with this week, and then work backwards to fill in your missing posts. Please remember the use of AI is prohibited in our class, since the purpose of the writing you are doing is for you to think and learn by writing (not a large language model). It’s therefore totally okay if your first posts are not great, as long as they’re yours- I’ll give everyone feedback as you make your posts, so you can improve as we go along.  

The first suggested due date for a larger assignment is this week- the Meme Project! If you are all caught up on blogging and want to earn a bigger chunk of points, then please do the meme. If you’re struggling to keep up with reading and blogging (or even to get started on blogging), that’s okay too- focus on the getting a blog post written, and know that all of our due dates are flexible, so you can do the meme assignment at a later point. I want to encourage us all to take the time we need to do our best work, and then submit it when you are ready.  If you’re behind on blogging, it’s not too late- start with this week, then catch up as you are able each week.  I have tried to build in enough flexibility for all students, but if you find yourself needing more for any reason (religious observance, family needs, your health/well-being, work, or any other reason), just reach out to me and we’ll make it work- I am here to help as we learn together this semester.